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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Rafael Jodar

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $289.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $754.2KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Rafael Jodar
62.0¢
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
38.0¢
Rafael Jodar
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets15Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority46Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 24 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:408 trades$368.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · $15.7K net·24 wallets·$97.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRafael Jodar$25.6K@ 80¢·beeemw

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Rafael Jodar pressure: $10.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$10.7K
6h
−$61.1K
tracked
$368.0K

24 verified profitable wallets: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · $15.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 87% · priority 46

Since latest liquidity absorption: -34.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Rafael Jodar or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 08:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Rafael Jodar in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Davidovich Fokina' if Alejandro Davidovich Fokina advances against Rafael Jodar. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
redvinny2 linked markets · $45.6K gross
quavoo3 linked markets · $160 gross
0xde96…190c2 linked markets · $80 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Rafael Jodar@ 74.0¢22m ago
15m INVALIDATED -40.0pp
MARKET SWEEPBUY Rafael Jodar@ 93.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -23.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Rafael Jodar@ 57.0¢11h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Rafael Jodar DOWN 9.0pp · near-book depth $45 → $6.1K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alejandro Davidovich Fokina; negative values favor Rafael Jodar. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRafael Jodar · $10.7K
6hRafael Jodar · $61.1K
24hRafael Jodar · $90.0K

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alejandro Davidovich Fokina price. Rafael Jodar fills are converted to the complementary Alejandro Davidovich Fokina probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current62.0¢
VWAP 24h35.3¢▲ above by 26.7pp
VWAP 7d35.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alejandro Davidovich Fokina price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$44.3K
60¢
← now
$8.9K
55¢
$0
50¢
$4.3K
45¢
$39.0K
40¢
$83.4K
35¢
$16.8K
30¢
$17.3K
25¢
$22.8K
20¢
$53.2K
15¢
$36.6K
10¢
$15.1K
5¢
$26.2K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlejandro Davidovich Fokina$15.2K@ 67.0¢
tiger1050x0d23…2d56
🐋—5 minutes ago
BUYRafael Jodar$25.6K@ 80.0¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlejandro Davidovich Fokina$10.0K@ 44.0¢
tiger1050x0d23…2d56
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar$15.0K@ 56.6¢
1337zzz13370x7972…594f
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYRafael Jodar$10.3K@ 57.0¢0xf924…a0cc🐋—about 14 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Rafael Jodar (-1.5) vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (+1.5)
0.0¢$5.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Rafael Jodar
0.0¢$4.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fokina vs. Jodar: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$4.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fokina vs. Jodar: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢$3.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$3.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Rafael Jodar (-1.5) vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (+1.5)
0.0¢$1.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fokina vs. Jodar: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢$931priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fokina vs. Jodar: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

beeemwRafael Jodar$25.6K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesAlejandro Davidovich Fokina$16.7K
BUY VWAP 28.5¢·26 fills
1337zzz1337Rafael Jodar$15.0K
BUY VWAP 56.6¢·1 fill
BIessRafael Jodar$14.8K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·2 fills
redvinnyRafael Jodar$14.5K
BUY VWAP 80.5¢·9 fills
0x076d…8d4cAlejandro Davidovich Fokina$10.7K
BUY VWAP 37.4¢·5 fills
0xf924…a0ccRafael Jodar$10.3K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill
0x09be…9c32Rafael Jodar$10.0K
BUY VWAP 92.5¢·2 fills
tiger105Alejandro Davidovich Fokina$10.0K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.