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Guangzhou: Egor Pleshivtsev vs Luca Castelnuovo

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $4.5KEvent: Guangzhou: Egor Pleshivtsev vs Luca Castelnuovo
0.0¢
Egor Pleshivtsev
0.0¢
Luca Castelnuovo
0.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection22Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets80Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$104 trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Egor Pleshivtsev · $52 net·4 wallets·$66 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$22
6h
+$22
tracked
$104

4 verified profitable wallets: Egor Pleshivtsev · $52 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 24 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 06:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Egor Pleshivtsev and Luca Castelnuovo in the Guangzhou, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Egor Pleshivtsev' if Egor Pleshivtsev advances against Luca Castelnuovo. This market will resolve to 'Luca Castelnuovo' if Luca Castelnuovo advances against Egor Pleshivtsev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Egor Pleshivtsev; negative values favor Luca Castelnuovo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hEgor Pleshivtsev · $22
6hEgor Pleshivtsev · $22
24hEgor Pleshivtsev · $26

Egor Pleshivtsev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Egor Pleshivtsev price. Luca Castelnuovo fills are converted to the complementary Egor Pleshivtsev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h34.5¢▼ below by NaNpp
VWAP 7d34.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Egor Pleshivtsev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$20
30¢
$83
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Luca Castelnuovo (-1.5) vs Egor Pleshivtsev (+1.5)
0.0¢$21priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pleshivtsev vs. Castelnuovo: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Egor Pleshivtsev vs. Luca Castelnuovo: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pleshivtsev vs. Castelnuovo: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Egor Pleshivtsev vs Luca Castelnuovo
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pleshivtsev vs. Castelnuovo: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pleshivtsev vs. Castelnuovo: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pleshivtsev vs. Castelnuovo: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.