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Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $56.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $458.3KEvent: Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs
27.5¢
Aurora Gaming
72.5¢
Team Falcons
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets7Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority45Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 15 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:407 trades$167.9K trackedsource coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aurora Gaming · $2.8K net·15 wallets·$59.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora Gaming$10.0K@ 75¢·hurrican

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Aurora Gaming pressure: $14.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$14.8K
6h
−$911
tracked
$167.9K

15 verified profitable wallets: Aurora Gaming · $2.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 45

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Aurora Gaming or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-18 15:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win Map 2 against Team Falcons.

•This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Map 2 against Aurora Gaming.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike 3rd Place match between Aurora Gaming and Team Falcons in the Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win Map 2 against Team Falcons. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Map 2 against Aurora Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 18, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f3 linked markets · $70.7K gross
Iostfd2 linked markets · $25.2K gross
hurrican2 linked markets · $20.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Team Falcons UP 9.5pp · near-book depth $2.5K → $150 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora Gaming; negative values favor Team Falcons. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAurora Gaming · $14.8K
6hTeam Falcons · $911
24hTeam Falcons · $911

Aurora Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora Gaming price. Team Falcons fills are converted to the complementary Aurora Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current27.5¢
VWAP 24h57.9¢▼ below by 30.4pp
VWAP 7d57.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aurora Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$13.2K
85¢
$1.9K
80¢
$7.6K
75¢
$13.8K
70¢
$17.3K
65¢
$10.0K
60¢
$8.9K
55¢
$19.3K
50¢
$4.2K
45¢
$14.0K
40¢
$13.3K
35¢
$23.8K
30¢
$9.8K
25¢
← now
$10.6K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAurora Gaming$10.0K@ 75.2¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—44 minutes ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs
11.5¢$848.9Kpriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
77.5¢$50.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
0.0¢$6.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)
0.0¢$3.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
0.0¢$535priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)
0.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fTeam Falcons$23.1K
BUY VWAP 58.1¢·14 fills
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fAurora Gaming$18.9K
BUY VWAP 56.5¢·11 fills
IostfdTeam Falcons$10.3K
BUY VWAP 46.2¢·3 fills
hurricanAurora Gaming$10.0K
BUY VWAP 75.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.