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Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $50.8KEvent: Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs
70.5¢
Team Falcons
29.5¢
Aurora Gaming
7.0¢
Spread
anomaly4Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets52Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution35Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:32 trades$8.6K trackedsource coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aurora Gaming · $24 net·4 wallets·$47 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora Gaming$3.0K@ 67¢·0xfd68…a90f

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$11
6h
−$6.0K
tracked
$8.6K

4 verified profitable wallets: Aurora Gaming · $24 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
7.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 26 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 7.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-18 17:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons wins 2 or more maps than Aurora Gaming in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike 3rd Place match between Aurora Gaming and Team Falcons in the Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons wins 2 or more maps than Aurora Gaming in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 18, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f3 linked markets · $70.7K gross
Iostfd2 linked markets · $25.2K gross
hurrican2 linked markets · $20.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Aurora Gaming DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $80 → $80 · 85s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Falcons; negative values favor Aurora Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTeam Falcons · $11
6hAurora Gaming · $6.0K
24hAurora Gaming · $5.8K

Team Falcons price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Falcons price. Aurora Gaming fills are converted to the complementary Team Falcons probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current70.5¢
VWAP 24h35.8¢▲ above by 34.7pp
VWAP 7d35.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Team Falcons price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$357
50¢
$782
45¢
$68
40¢
$0
35¢
$16
30¢
$7.3K
25¢
$0
20¢
$11
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs
11.5¢$848.9Kpriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner
22.5¢$458.3Kpriority45Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
0.0¢$6.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)
0.0¢$3.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
0.0¢$535priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)
0.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.