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Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs MVK Esports (+1.5)

● quote 13s ago
Sports→Esports · League of LegendsCloses: about 12 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $33.4KEvent: LoL: Karmine Corp vs MVK Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In
74.5¢
Karmine Corp
25.5¢
MVK Esports
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%
24h sample:14 trades$7.2K trackedsource coverage 22%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 48 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKarmine Corp$2.3K@ 75¢·0x9ede…ccc5

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$780
6h
+$954
tracked
$7.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 48 minutes old.
  • •Less than 12h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp wins 2 or more games than MVK Esports in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "MVK Esports".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Grand Final match between Karmine Corp and MVK Esports in the Worlds Play-In, initially scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp wins 2 or more games than MVK Esports in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "MVK Esports". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 18, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining games required to decide the match, including a game in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $663 gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $113 gross
0x9e3e…f8823 linked markets · $14 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Karmine Corp; negative values favor MVK Esports. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMVK Esports · $780
6hKarmine Corp · $954
24hMVK Esports · $996

Karmine Corp price VWAP

Volume-weighted Karmine Corp price. MVK Esports fills are converted to the complementary Karmine Corp probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current74.5¢
VWAP 24h73.8¢▲ above by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d73.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Karmine Corp price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$2.9K
70¢
← now
$4.3K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: Karmine Corp vs MVK Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In
88.5¢$235.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs MVK Esports (+2.5)
0.0¢$15.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Karmine Corp vs MVK Esports - Game 1 Winner
75.5¢$13.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 3.5
0.0¢$12.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Karmine Corp vs MVK Esports - Game 4 Winner
57.5¢$5.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Karmine Corp vs MVK Esports - Game 3 Winner
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 4.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Karmine Corp vs MVK Esports - Game 2 Winner
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.