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Lisbon: Marco Trungelliti vs Tiago Pereira

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $7.2KEvent: Lisbon: Marco Trungelliti vs Tiago Pereira
77.5¢
Marco Trungelliti
22.5¢
Tiago Pereira
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection70Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets76Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$1.3K trackedsource coverage 19%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tiago Pereira · $929 net·3 wallets·$1.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTiago Pereira$1.1K@ 18¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$923
6h
−$1.0K
tracked
$1.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: Tiago Pereira · $929 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Tiago Pereira in the Lisbon, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Tiago Pereira. This market will resolve to 'Tiago Pereira' if Tiago Pereira advances against Marco Trungelliti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Marco Trungelliti UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $61.6K → $20.3K · 84s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Marco Trungelliti; negative values favor Tiago Pereira. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTiago Pereira · $923
6hTiago Pereira · $1.0K
24hTiago Pereira · $1.0K

Marco Trungelliti price VWAP

Volume-weighted Marco Trungelliti price. Tiago Pereira fills are converted to the complementary Marco Trungelliti probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current77.5¢
VWAP 24h81.9¢▼ below by 4.4pp
VWAP 7d81.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Marco Trungelliti price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$11
80¢
$1.2K
75¢
← now
$89
70¢
$2
65¢
$3
60¢
$5
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Trungelliti vs. Pereira: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢$33priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Trungelliti vs. Pereira: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢$33priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Marco Trungelliti vs Tiago Pereira
0.0¢$24priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Marco Trungelliti vs. Tiago Pereira: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$15priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Marco Trungelliti (-4.5) vs Tiago Pereira (+4.5)
0.0¢$7priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Trungelliti vs. Pereira: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Trungelliti vs. Pereira: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Trungelliti vs. Pereira: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.