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Florence: Dmitry Popko vs Daniele Rapagnetta

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $88.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.4MEvent: Florence: Dmitry Popko vs Daniele Rapagnetta
95.5¢
Dmitry Popko
4.5¢
Daniele Rapagnetta
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection35Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets26Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 17 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:251 trades$513.6K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Daniele Rapagnetta · $23.9K net·17 wallets(1🐋)·$91.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDaniele Rapagnetta$51.5K@ 60¢·lsiflsliggjriek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Dmitry Popko pressure: $177.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$177.5K
6h
+$116.9K
tracked
$513.6K

17 verified profitable wallets: Daniele Rapagnetta · $23.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +44.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.
  • •Executable SELL price moved 44.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Dmitry Popko or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 10:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Dmitry Popko and Daniele Rapagnetta in the Florence, Italy, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 6:20AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dmitry Popko' if Dmitry Popko advances against Daniele Rapagnetta. This market will resolve to 'Daniele Rapagnetta' if Daniele Rapagnetta advances against Dmitry Popko. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASESELL Daniele Rapagnetta35m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASESELL Daniele Rapagnetta35m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Dmitry Popko47m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Dmitry Popko47m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Daniele Rapagnetta DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $930 → $101 · 49s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Dmitry Popko; negative values favor Daniele Rapagnetta. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDmitry Popko · $177.5K
6hDmitry Popko · $116.9K
24hDmitry Popko · $116.9K

Dmitry Popko price VWAP

Volume-weighted Dmitry Popko price. Daniele Rapagnetta fills are converted to the complementary Dmitry Popko probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current95.5¢
VWAP 24h53.6¢▲ above by 41.9pp
VWAP 7d53.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Dmitry Popko price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$9.0K
85¢
$7.2K
80¢
$30.6K
75¢
$39.6K
70¢
$44.0K
65¢
$20.7K
60¢
$5.0K
55¢
$1.4K
50¢
$66.8K
45¢
$24.1K
40¢
$149.8K
35¢
$115.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLDaniele Rapagnetta$23.7K@ 47.0¢
lsiflsliggjriek0x4f53…67d3
🐋—42 minutes ago
SELLDaniele Rapagnetta$19.4K@ 47.2¢
lsiflsliggjriek0x4f53…67d3
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLDaniele Rapagnetta$49.4K@ 55.9¢
lsiflsliggjriek0x4f53…67d3
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDaniele Rapagnetta$14.1K@ 57.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLDaniele Rapagnetta$13.0K@ 58.6¢0x4439…238d🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLDaniele Rapagnetta$51.5K@ 60.0¢
lsiflsliggjriek0x4f53…67d3
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDmitry Popko$30.7K@ 39.2¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Popko vs. Rapagnetta: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Dmitry Popko (-1.5) vs Daniele Rapagnetta (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Daniele Rapagnetta (-1.5) vs Dmitry Popko (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Popko vs. Rapagnetta: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Popko vs. Rapagnetta: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dmitry Popko vs. Daniele Rapagnetta: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?
64.5¢$2.2Mpriority96Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

lsiflsliggjriekDaniele Rapagnetta$70.9K
BUY VWAP 23.0¢·17 fills
kdvlklkvlsklkfsDmitry Popko$57.3K
BUY VWAP 39.5¢·5 fills
0x076d…8d4cDaniele Rapagnetta$23.3K
BUY VWAP 52.5¢·15 fills
0x4439…238dDaniele Rapagnetta$22.5K
BUY VWAP 24.8¢·9 fills
UpTheBluesDmitry Popko$20.7K
BUY VWAP 74.5¢·14 fills
ferrariChampions2026Daniele Rapagnetta$15.6K
BUY VWAP 57.1¢·2 fills
HVABDaniele Rapagnetta$12.3K
BUY VWAP 52.4¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.