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Game Spread: Belinda Bencic (-1.5) vs Jelena Ostapenko (+1.5)

● quote 363 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $338Event: Ningbo Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Belinda Bencic
52.0¢
Belinda Bencic
48.0¢
Jelena Ostapenko
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%
24h sample:2 trades$115 trackedsource coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 188 min agoofficial metadata 77 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$15
tracked
$115

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 363 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 188 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 77 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Belinda Bencic" if Belinda Bencic wins 1.5 or more total games than Jelena Ostapenko in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Jelena Ostapenko".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Belinda Bencic could no longer have finished 1.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Jelena Ostapenko".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Belinda Bencic" if Belinda Bencic wins 1.5 or more total games than Jelena Ostapenko in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Jelena Ostapenko". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Belinda Bencic could no longer have finished 1.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Jelena Ostapenko". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HVAB2 linked markets · $5.3K gross
0xdbdd…a5de2 linked markets · $341 gross
0xfb57…67192 linked markets · $120 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Belinda Bencic; negative values favor Jelena Ostapenko. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBelinda Bencic · $0
6hJelena Ostapenko · $15
24hJelena Ostapenko · $115

Belinda Bencic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Belinda Bencic price. Jelena Ostapenko fills are converted to the complementary Belinda Bencic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.0¢
VWAP 24h50.7¢▲ above by 1.3pp
VWAP 7d50.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Belinda Bencic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$100
45¢
$15
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.