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Cali: Nicolas Jarry vs Tomas Barrios

● quote 53s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $56.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $399.1KEvent: Cali: Nicolas Jarry vs Tomas Barrios
100.0¢
Nicolas Jarry
0.1¢
Tomas Barrios
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection31Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets38Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:181 trades$178.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 27 min agoofficial metadata 22s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Nicolas Jarry · $6.0K net·10 wallets·$16.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNicolas Jarry$28.8K@ 100¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Tomas Barrios pressure: $55.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$55.0K
6h
−$55.3K
tracked
$178.4K

10 verified profitable wallets: Nicolas Jarry · $6.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +59.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 27 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 59.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Tomas Barrios or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolas Jarry and Tomas Barrios in the Cali, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Jarry' if Nicolas Jarry advances against Tomas Barrios. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Barrios' if Tomas Barrios advances against Nicolas Jarry. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $943 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Nicolas Jarry3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Nicolas Jarry@ 41.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +31.0pp
Latest book event: Nicolas Jarry UP 9.0pp · near-book depth $50.5K → $5.9K · 20s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nicolas Jarry; negative values favor Tomas Barrios. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTomas Barrios · $55.0K
6hTomas Barrios · $55.3K
24hTomas Barrios · $60.5K

Nicolas Jarry price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nicolas Jarry price. Tomas Barrios fills are converted to the complementary Nicolas Jarry probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h76.5¢▲ above by 23.5pp
VWAP 7d76.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nicolas Jarry price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$70.8K
90¢
$30.2K
85¢
$0
80¢
$5.0K
75¢
$1
70¢
$14.1K
65¢
$914
60¢
$4.2K
55¢
$0
50¢
$30
45¢
$15.7K
40¢
$4.2K
35¢
$15.9K
30¢
$14.4K
25¢
$2.2K
20¢
$778
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNicolas Jarry$10.5K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLNicolas Jarry$28.8K@ 99.9¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstNicolas Jarry$28.3K
BUY VWAP 39.8¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.