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Ningbo Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich

● quote 57 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $262.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $535.6KEvent: Ningbo Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich
0.1¢
Daria Kasatkina
99.9¢
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets56Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:107 trades$243.8K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 89 min agoofficial metadata 58 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aliaksandra Sasnovich · $36.5K net·7 wallets·$64.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAliaksandra Sasnovich$29.0K@ 97¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$68.0K
tracked
$243.8K

7 verified profitable wallets: Aliaksandra Sasnovich · $36.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +41.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 57 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 89 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 58 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daria Kasatkina and Aliaksandra Sasnovich in the Ningbo Open, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daria Kasatkina' if Daria Kasatkina advances against Aliaksandra Sasnovich. This market will resolve to 'Aliaksandra Sasnovich' if Aliaksandra Sasnovich advances against Daria Kasatkina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $1.4K gross
above982 linked markets · $358 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Aliaksandra Sasnovich3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Aliaksandra Sasnovich@ 59.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +6.0pp1h CONFIRMED +40.1pp
Latest book event: Daria Kasatkina DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $12.1K → $12.1K · 16s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daria Kasatkina; negative values favor Aliaksandra Sasnovich. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaria Kasatkina · $0
6hAliaksandra Sasnovich · $68.0K
24hAliaksandra Sasnovich · $68.0K

Daria Kasatkina price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daria Kasatkina price. Aliaksandra Sasnovich fills are converted to the complementary Daria Kasatkina probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h18.9¢▼ below by 18.8pp
VWAP 7d18.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daria Kasatkina price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$44.7K
40¢
$24.5K
35¢
$1.4K
30¢
$3.9K
25¢
$13.2K
20¢
$3.8K
15¢
$6.3K
10¢
$3.9K
5¢
$44.7K
0¢
← now
$97.5K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAliaksandra Sasnovich$29.0K@ 96.7¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLAliaksandra Sasnovich$14.3K@ 95.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAliaksandra Sasnovich$10.0K@ 54.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAliaksandra Sasnovich$10.0K@ 51.2¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAliaksandra Sasnovich$10.0K@ 51.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Daria Kasatkina vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich
0.0¢$1.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kasatkina vs. Sasnovich: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢$216priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Aliaksandra Sasnovich (-1.5) vs Daria Kasatkina (+1.5)
0.0¢$142priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kasatkina vs. Sasnovich: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$28priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Daria Kasatkina vs. Aliaksandra Sasnovich: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$20priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kasatkina vs. Sasnovich: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kasatkina vs. Sasnovich: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kasatkina vs. Sasnovich: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstAliaksandra Sasnovich$50.6K
BUY VWAP 53.1¢·6 fills
dmoralezAliaksandra Sasnovich$24.5K
BUY VWAP 94.9¢·8 fills
UpTheBluesAliaksandra Sasnovich$15.7K
BUY VWAP 88.4¢·4 fills
KkunnAliaksandra Sasnovich$15.0K
BUY VWAP 57.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.