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Almaty Open: James Duckworth vs Luciano Darderi

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $254.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $110.6KEvent: Almaty Open: James Duckworth vs Luciano Darderi
77.5¢
James Duckworth
22.5¢
Luciano Darderi
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection17Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets13Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:76 trades$29.3K trackedsource coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:James Duckworth · $1.1K net·9 wallets·$8.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLuciano Darderi$3.7K@ 49¢·0x246b…fb5b

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

James Duckworth pressure: $5.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.0K
6h
+$3.8K
tracked
$29.3K

9 verified profitable wallets: James Duckworth · $1.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 49

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from James Duckworth or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 06:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between James Duckworth and Luciano Darderi in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'James Duckworth' if James Duckworth advances against Luciano Darderi. This market will resolve to 'Luciano Darderi' if Luciano Darderi advances against James Duckworth. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: James Duckworth UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.8K → $61.3K · 13s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor James Duckworth; negative values favor Luciano Darderi. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJames Duckworth · $5.0K
6hJames Duckworth · $3.8K
24hJames Duckworth · $3.6K

James Duckworth price VWAP

Volume-weighted James Duckworth price. Luciano Darderi fills are converted to the complementary James Duckworth probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current77.5¢
VWAP 24h55.5¢▲ above by 22.0pp
VWAP 7d55.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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James Duckworth price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
← now
$6.7K
70¢
$30
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$244
50¢
$11.2K
45¢
$11.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 1 Winner: James Duckworth vs Luciano Darderi
48.0¢$897priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Duckworth vs. Darderi: Match O/U 22.5
54.5¢$270priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Duckworth vs. Darderi: Match O/U 23.5
45.5¢$92priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Luciano Darderi (-1.5) vs James Duckworth (+1.5)
33.0¢$43priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Duckworth vs. Darderi: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
59.0¢$42priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
James Duckworth vs. Luciano Darderi: Total Sets O/U 2.5
38.5¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Luciano Darderi (-0.5) vs James Duckworth (+0.5)
51.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Duckworth vs. Darderi: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.