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Set 1 Winner: Arthur Fils vs Jaume Munar

● quote 14 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $10.5KEvent: European Open: Arthur Fils vs Jaume Munar
50.5¢
Arthur Fils
49.5¢
Jaume Munar
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%
24h sample:6 trades$1.7K trackedsource coverage 16%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 479 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArthur Fils$1.0K@ 50¢·Forecastication2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$1.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 14 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 479 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Arthur Fils” if Arthur Fils wins the first set. It will resolve to “Jaume Munar” if Jaume Munar wins the first set.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fils and Jaume Munar in the European Open, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Arthur Fils” if Arthur Fils wins the first set. It will resolve to “Jaume Munar” if Jaume Munar wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x7f98…698b2 linked markets · $488 gross
0x1263…f2412 linked markets · $390 gross
0x2b9d…33732 linked markets · $390 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Fils; negative values favor Jaume Munar. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Fils · $0
6hArthur Fils · $0
24hArthur Fils · $1.7K

Arthur Fils price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Fils price. Jaume Munar fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Fils probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h50.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d50.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arthur Fils price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$1.7K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

European Open: Arthur Fils vs Jaume Munar
50.5¢$16.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Arthur Fils vs. Jaume Munar: Total Sets O/U 2.5
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Fils vs. Munar: Match O/U 23.5
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Set 2 Winner: Arthur Fils vs Jaume Munar
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.