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European Open: Mariano Navone vs Tallon Griekspoor

● quote 178 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $139.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $265.2KEvent: European Open: Mariano Navone vs Tallon Griekspoor
0.1¢
Mariano Navone
99.9¢
Tallon Griekspoor
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets27Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:136 trades$116.7K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 195 min agoofficial metadata 180 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tallon Griekspoor · $6.6K net·13 wallets·$24.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTallon Griekspoor$12.4K@ 100¢·RDXR

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$4.0K
tracked
$116.7K

13 verified profitable wallets: Tallon Griekspoor · $6.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 178 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 195 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 180 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mariano Navone and Tallon Griekspoor in the European Open, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Tallon Griekspoor. This market will resolve to 'Tallon Griekspoor' if Tallon Griekspoor advances against Mariano Navone. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x0464…67da2 linked markets · $85 gross
0x0d10…780b2 linked markets · $6 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Tallon Griekspoor UP 7.0pp · near-book depth $99.5K → $51.1K · 23s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mariano Navone; negative values favor Tallon Griekspoor. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMariano Navone · $0
6hMariano Navone · $4.0K
24hMariano Navone · $375

Mariano Navone price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mariano Navone price. Tallon Griekspoor fills are converted to the complementary Mariano Navone probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h23.8¢▼ below by 23.7pp
VWAP 7d23.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mariano Navone price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$123
40¢
$38.9K
35¢
$14.6K
30¢
$1.1K
25¢
$8.3K
20¢
$6.7K
15¢
$474
10¢
$11.4K
5¢
$12.0K
0¢
← now
$23.1K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLTallon Griekspoor$12.4K@ 99.9¢
RDXR0xc293…fac3
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Mariano Navone vs Tallon Griekspoor
0.0¢$2.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Tallon Griekspoor (-1.5) vs Mariano Navone (+1.5)
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Mariano Navone vs. Tallon Griekspoor: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$201priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Tallon Griekspoor (-1.5) vs Mariano Navone (+1.5)
0.0¢$63priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Navone vs. Griekspoor: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Navone vs. Griekspoor: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Navone vs. Griekspoor: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21?
43.5¢$974.7Kpriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesTallon Griekspoor$12.8K
BUY VWAP 77.7¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.