Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-11-02?

Sports→SoccerCloses: about 18 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $12.4KEvent: Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Alverca

Polymarket indicative prices · 54s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

84.5¢
YES
15.5¢
NO
—
Spread
anomaly100direction99wallets0execution0priority0data 55%
24h sample:4 trades$2.5K trackedsource coverage 20%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 18 min agoofficial metadata 54s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$2.5K@ 85¢·bobjberg

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: $2.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.5K
6h
+$2.5K
tracked
$2.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 18 minutes old.
  • •Less than 18h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-02 20:15 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.ligaportugal.pt/
Outcome meaning

•If Sport Lisboa e Benfica wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for November 2, 2026 If Sport Lisboa e Benfica wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xaa97…946f2 linked markets · $7 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Lifecycleresolving

Signed Order Flow

1hYES · $2.5K
6hYES · $2.5K
24hYES · $2.5K

YES price VWAP

Current84.5¢
VWAP 24h84.99¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d73.13¢
Largest observed holders

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$2.5K
80¢
← now
$18
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$2.2K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.