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Set Handicap: Taylor Fritz (-1.5) vs Daniel Altmaier (+1.5)

● quote 505 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $736Event: Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz

Indicative prices · 505 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

—
Taylor Fritz
—
Daniel Altmaier.
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:1 trades$11 trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 716 min agoofficial metadata 492 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$11

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Indicative price is unavailable.
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-30 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Taylor Fritz" if Taylor Fritz wins by 2 or more sets than Daniel Altmaier, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Daniel Altmaier."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Taylor Fritz can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Daniel Altmaier."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Taylor Fritz and Daniel Altmaier in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Taylor Fritz" if Taylor Fritz wins by 2 or more sets than Daniel Altmaier, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Daniel Altmaier." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Taylor Fritz can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Daniel Altmaier." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $10.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Taylor Fritz; negative values favor Daniel Altmaier.. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTaylor Fritz · $0
6hTaylor Fritz · $0
24hTaylor Fritz · $11

Taylor Fritz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Taylor Fritz price. Daniel Altmaier. fills are converted to the complementary Taylor Fritz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current—
VWAP 24h57.0¢
VWAP 7d57.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Taylor Fritz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$11
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.