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Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 1 Winner

● quote 8 min ago
Sports→Esports · Dota 2Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $587.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A

Polymarket indicative prices · 12 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
Team Liquid
99.95¢
OG
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection27Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets6Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 27 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:324 trades$363.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:OG · $4.1K net·27 wallets(1🐋)·$65.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLOG$49.8K@ 100¢·relativesignificance

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Team Liquid pressure: $97.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$97.1K
6h
+$111.1K
tracked
$363.8K

27 verified profitable wallets: OG · $4.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 8 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Team Liquid or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win Game 1 against OG.

•This market will resolve to "OG" if OG win Game 1 against Team Liquid.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Team Liquid and OG in the PARI Universe Group A, initially scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win Game 1 against OG. This market will resolve to "OG" if OG win Game 1 against Team Liquid. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 25, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
relativesignificance2 linked markets · $75.8K gross
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $46.5K gross
yishiwucheng3 linked markets · $25.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Team Liquid DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $195 → $102 · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Liquid; negative values favor OG. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTeam Liquid · $97.1K
6hTeam Liquid · $111.1K
24hTeam Liquid · $112.4K

Team Liquid price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Liquid price. OG fills are converted to the complementary Team Liquid probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h35.7¢▼ below by 35.6pp
VWAP 7d35.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Team Liquid price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$6.6K
85¢
$10.1K
80¢
$8.0K
75¢
$5.2K
70¢
$4.1K
65¢
$16.5K
60¢
$10.2K
55¢
$19.0K
50¢
$70.6K
45¢
$42.7K
40¢
$34.0K
35¢
$2.0K
30¢
$2.0K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$2.6K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$130.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLOG$49.8K@ 99.9¢
relativesignificance0x9697…18e9
🐋—22 minutes ago
SELLOG$10.5K@ 99.9¢
GameGambleStakes0xb26f…9536
🐋—39 minutes ago
BUYOG$11.9K@ 57.0¢0xf3ce…a57a🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid$10.0K@ 52.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Team Liquid$16.0K
BUY VWAP 55.12¢·7 fills
relativesignificanceOG$13.1K
BUY VWAP 51.10¢·4 fills
VPenguinTeam Liquid$12.6K
BUY VWAP 47.13¢·2 fills
0xf3ce…a57aOG$11.9K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.