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Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

● quote just now
Sports→SoccerCloses: 3 monthsLiquidity: $123.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $94.3KEvent: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
27.4¢
YES
72.7¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly46Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets70Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 28 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:327 trades$34.8K trackedsource coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $25.6K net·28 wallets·$39.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$9.1K@ 55¢·RobyMain

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$553
6h
−$1.0K
tracked
$34.8K

28 verified profitable wallets: NO · $25.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.francefootball.fr/
Outcome meaning

•If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 25d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
gmgmgmgmg10 linked markets · $49.8K gross
e46m39 linked markets · $48.1K gross
JustClickeverywhere10 linked markets · $43.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $553
6hNO · $1.0K
24hNO · $15.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current27.4¢
VWAP 24h27.6¢▼ below by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d28.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$5.4K
55¢
$59.4K
50¢
$30.3K
45¢
$43.7K
40¢
$64.0K
35¢
$18.0K
30¢
$30.2K
25¢
← now
$91.4K
20¢
$23.6K
15¢
$141
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.