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Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Sports→SoccerSettlement: YESLiquidity: $621.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $7.4MEvent: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
100.0¢
YES payout
0.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$290.1K@ 100¢·Lordpengu

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome YES. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-27 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.francefootball.fr/
Outcome meaning

•If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 22d ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 51d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY YES@ 73.7¢17d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 74.0¢17d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 72.8¢17d ago
15m STALLED -0.7pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 76.3¢17d ago
15m STALLED +0.3pp1h STALLED -1.9pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $109.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h86.88¢▲ above by 13.1pp
VWAP 7d80.79¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.6M
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$17.1K
75¢
$778.9K
70¢
$1.5M
65¢
$596.9K
60¢
$575.0K
55¢
$24.6K
50¢
$24.5K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLYES$209.8K@ 99.9¢
cosmicxbt0x9ee4…697b
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$12.8K@ 99.9¢
Zoomman170x92a8…eebc
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$23.9K@ 99.9¢
sksuussusuususus0xdddc…d1d7
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$12.0K@ 99.9¢
M222MM0xd13e…2914
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$10.5K@ 99.9¢0x19d7…8415🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$98.4K@ 99.9¢
denver280xe966…fa3e
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$19.8K@ 99.9¢
brace2270x8738…6d03
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$11.1K@ 99.9¢
Diablox90x8421…d8ec
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$11.4K@ 99.9¢
malanging0x5d21…cbc4
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$290.1K@ 99.9¢
Lordpengu0x58f5…c6c9
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$25.5K@ 99.9¢
noscopenomad0x897e…cb51
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$63.4K@ 99.9¢
degenxbt100x8b42…063e
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$18.5K@ 99.9¢
phkjjd0x8fbc…5c63
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$15.1K@ 99.9¢
cs2.quant0xe0a4…a81e
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$12.2K@ 99.9¢
SheepToken0xff72…cdaa
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$14.3K@ 99.9¢
Daxontrack0x47c0…7fc8
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$58.0K@ 99.9¢
moonlight4530x6c42…ae13
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$13.7K@ 99.9¢
Hongweiqian0x462d…ce9b
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$183.8K@ 99.9¢
dromedaryy0x6575…b198
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$20.0K@ 99.0¢
Syrrok0xe301…8654
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 99.0¢0xf584…3979🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$11.2K@ 99.0¢
kryptontrader0x56d8…1cce
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$13.4K@ 99.0¢
SharkVision0xdb42…0ad9
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$11.2K@ 98.9¢
kryptontrader0x56d8…1cce
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$11.2K@ 99.0¢
kryptontrader0x56d8…1cce
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$11.1K@ 99.0¢
kryptontrader0x56d8…1cce
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$21.9K@ 73.0¢
ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$19.6K@ 70.99¢
tsihkodiives0x6db9…4ab5
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$28.4K@ 71.0¢
ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$14.2K@ 71.0¢
tsihkodiives0x6db9…4ab5
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$61.5K@ 71.0¢
dromedaryy0x6575…b198
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$12.1K@ 80.35¢
cs2.quant0xe0a4…a81e
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$12.8K@ 72.83¢
JSG30x0191…541d
🐋—17 days ago
BUYNO$43.1K@ 23.4¢0x2c33…0563🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$74.6K@ 76.0¢
flawfence0x23d8…0288
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$13.4K@ 75.17¢
mr.ozi0x614d…1546
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$15.1K@ 75.4¢
mr.ozi0x614d…1546
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$10.1K@ 78.03¢
BreadGet0x4e56…dee1
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$17.8K@ 77.42¢0xbfea…7a86🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$75.3K@ 73.99¢
flawfence0x23d8…0288
🐋—17 days ago
BUYNO$13.1K@ 27.03¢
Kimoo770x39bc…28e9
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$14.9K@ 72.97¢
aibaby0xfa25…05e8
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$21.4K@ 73.81¢
0x830bcf...946cxil0x2d75…c7d8
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$12.1K@ 72.93¢0xbfea…7a86🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$24.2K@ 73.66¢
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN0xdaef…54e9
🐋—17 days ago
BUYNO$12.6K@ 30.17¢
Kimoo770x39bc…28e9
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$10.7K@ 73.71¢
sksuussusuususus0xdddc…d1d7
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$11.1K@ 64.3¢0x9ba7…00ef🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$32.0K@ 63.88¢
dromedaryy0x6575…b198
🐋—17 days ago
BUYYES$32.3K@ 63.87¢
mr.ozi0x614d…1546
🐋—17 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.