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Spread: Bulls (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: 8 minutesLiquidity: $38.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $684.4KEvent: Wizards vs. Bulls

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

58.5¢
Bulls
41.5¢
Wizards
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly23Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets32Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution60Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:35 trades$327.2K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 52s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Wizards · $18.6K net·8 wallets(1🐋)·$57.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLBulls$101.2K@ 51¢·googleplay

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$214
6h
−$24.9K
tracked
$327.2K

8 verified profitable wallets: Wizards · $18.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest position change: -6.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Bulls" if the Bulls win the game by 2 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Wizards". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Wizards".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bulls" if the Bulls win the game by 2 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Wizards". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Wizards". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
googleplay2 linked markets · $944.0K gross
maz262 linked markets · $97.6K gross
Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $49.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGESELL Bulls@ 51.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWSELL Bulls@ 51.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -7.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Bulls@ 51.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Wizards@ 51.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Wizards DOWN 10.5pp · near-book depth $4.2K → $1.7K · 51s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bulls; negative values favor Wizards. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBulls · $214
6hWizards · $24.9K
24hWizards · $24.0K

Bulls price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bulls price. Wizards fills are converted to the complementary Bulls probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current58.5¢
VWAP 24h50.46¢▲ above by 8.0pp
VWAP 7d50.46¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Bulls price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$3
55¢
← now
$0
50¢
$266.8K
45¢
$60.5K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYWizards$15.3K@ 49.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—5 minutes ago
SELLBulls$101.2K@ 51.0¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—38 minutes ago
BUYBulls$100.7K@ 50.76¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYWizards$32.6K@ 51.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYBulls$11.9K@ 50.0¢
Zillahstone0xdbad…81aa
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

googleplayBulls$100.7K
BUY VWAP 50.76¢·1 fill
Lakersfan111Wizards$32.6K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Wizards$15.3K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
ZillahstoneBulls$11.9K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.