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Games Total: O/U 2.5

Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $223Event: Counter-Strike: Dark Moon vs NOCTIS (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #3 Play-In

Indicative prices · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

—
Over
—
Under
—
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection98Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$174 trackedsource coverage 78%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 53 min agoofficial metadata 60 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$171
6h
+$167
tracked
$174

1 verified profitable wallet: Over · $171 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 70% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Indicative price is unavailable.
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-24 20:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if Dark Moon and NOCTIS play 3 or more maps in this series.

•If fewer than 3 maps are played, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Dark Moon and NOCTIS in the Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #3 Play-In, initially scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if Dark Moon and NOCTIS play 3 or more maps in this series. If fewer than 3 maps are played, this market will resolve to "Under". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the total, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 3h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ARTEM-DZYUBA2 linked markets · $796 gross
DkOYL3 linked markets · $8 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $171
6hOver · $167
24hOver · $167

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current—
VWAP 24h97.25¢
VWAP 7d97.25¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$171
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$3
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Dark Moon vs NOCTIS (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #3 Play-In
99.55¢$9.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Dark Moon vs NOCTIS - Map 1 Winner
—$1.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Dark Moon vs NOCTIS - Map 2 Winner
—$975priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Dark Moon (-3.5) vs NOCTIS (+3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Dark Moon (-6.5) vs NOCTIS (+6.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Dark Moon (-3.5) vs NOCTIS (+3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Dark Moon (-3.5) vs NOCTIS (+3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.