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Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner

● quote 54 min ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $267.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $327.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

Indicative prices · 54 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.1¢
FURIA
99.9¢
Natus Vincere
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets60Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:95 trades$119.1K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 76 min agoofficial metadata 56 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $13.2K net·10 wallets·$22.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNatus Vincere$12.0K@ 93¢·djwnke

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$3.4K
tracked
$119.1K

10 verified profitable wallets: Natus Vincere · $13.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 54 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 76 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 56 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 21:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA win Map 2 against Natus Vincere.

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Map 2 against FURIA.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between FURIA and Natus Vincere in the PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA win Map 2 against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Map 2 against FURIA. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 25, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 3h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
aaaa2983 linked markets · $38.2K gross
redvinny2 linked markets · $34.0K gross
iii2522 linked markets · $29.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: FURIA DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $2.1K → $144 · 11s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FURIA; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFURIA · $0
6hNatus Vincere · $3.4K
24hNatus Vincere · $3.4K

FURIA price VWAP

Volume-weighted FURIA price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary FURIA probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h27.74¢▼ below by 27.6pp
VWAP 7d27.74¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FURIA price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$6.3K
60¢
$24.2K
55¢
$300
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$7.2K
35¢
$54
30¢
$9.4K
25¢
$10.7K
20¢
$7.0K
15¢
$9.0K
10¢
$6.4K
5¢
$15.3K
0¢
← now
$23.2K

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNatus Vincere$12.0K@ 93.38¢
djwnke0x71a5…970d
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
—$1.1Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
—$11.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
—$9.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)
—$2.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)
—$621priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
—$345priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

djwnkeNatus Vincere$12.0K
BUY VWAP 93.38¢·1 fill
cruzNBANatus Vincere$11.5K
BUY VWAP 66.42¢·5 fills
redvinnyNatus Vincere$10.7K
BUY VWAP 77.11¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.