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Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $495.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
FURIA
99.95¢
Natus Vincere
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets21Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 17 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:226 trades$428.7K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $17.9K net·17 wallets(3🐋)·$85.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFURIA$114.0K@ 57¢·lllllllIlll

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

FURIA pressure: $9.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$9.8K
6h
+$51.9K
tracked
$428.7K

17 verified profitable wallets: Natus Vincere · $17.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Since latest whale follow through: -62.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from FURIA or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 21:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA win the match against Natus Vincere.

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against FURIA.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between FURIA and Natus Vincere in the PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA win the match against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against FURIA. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 25, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
aaaa2983 linked markets · $38.2K gross
redvinny2 linked markets · $34.0K gross
iii2522 linked markets · $29.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY FURIA@ 63.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -25.0pp1h INVALIDATED -59.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Natus Vincere2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 44.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +14.0pp1h CONFIRMED +18.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY FURIA@ 59.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -23.0pp1h INVALIDATED -22.0pp
Latest book event: FURIA UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $2.2K → $200 · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FURIA; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFURIA · $9.8K
6hFURIA · $51.9K
24hFURIA · $59.6K

FURIA price VWAP

Volume-weighted FURIA price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary FURIA probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h43.74¢▼ below by 43.7pp
VWAP 7d43.74¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FURIA price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.3K
60¢
$5.0K
55¢
$188.0K
50¢
$6.1K
45¢
$1.5K
40¢
$925
35¢
$163.3K
30¢
$15.3K
25¢
$0
20¢
$17.6K
15¢
$3.9K
10¢
$4.5K
5¢
$1.6K
0¢
← now
$18.7K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNatus Vincere$16.1K@ 77.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$20.3K@ 62.0¢
tankfest20270x4d6e…5cfd
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$25.2K@ 63.0¢
skyman440x30c7…ac3b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$25.2K@ 63.0¢
basementdweller30000x5e6e…be00
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFURIA$31.5K@ 38.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$19.4K@ 42.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFURIA$114.0K@ 57.0¢
lllllllIlll0xe40e…9770
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner
0.05¢$327.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
0.05¢$11.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
0.05¢$9.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)
—$2.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)
—$621priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
—$345priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

lllllllIlllFURIA$114.0K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill
juice-fruitFURIA$33.9K
BUY VWAP 38.0¢·2 fills
basementdweller3000Natus Vincere$29.7K
BUY VWAP 62.85¢·2 fills
skyman44Natus Vincere$28.3K
BUY VWAP 62.89¢·2 fills
tankfest2027Natus Vincere$20.3K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·1 fill
0x1610…ae49Natus Vincere$19.4K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Natus Vincere$16.1K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.