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Set Handicap: Arthur Fils (-1.5) vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (+1.5)

Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $1.6KEvent: Swiss Indoors Basel: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Arthur Fils

Indicative prices · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

—
Arthur Fils
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Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
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Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets93Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$347 trackedsource coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1061 min agoofficial metadata 981 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Arthur Fils · $318 net·3 wallets·$341 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$347

3 verified profitable wallets: Arthur Fils · $318 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Indicative price is unavailable.
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 1061 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-03 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Arthur Fils" if Arthur Fils wins by 2 or more sets than Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Arthur Fils can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fils and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the Swiss Indoors Basel, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Arthur Fils" if Arthur Fils wins by 2 or more sets than Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Arthur Fils can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x076d…8d4c2 linked markets · $7.9K gross
neutralwave232 linked markets · $1.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Fils; negative values favor Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Fils · $0
6hArthur Fils · $0
24hArthur Fils · $322

Arthur Fils price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Fils price. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Fils probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current—
VWAP 24h51.08¢
VWAP 7d51.08¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arthur Fils price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$347
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.