Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 26-November 1?

● quote 201 min ago

Crypto→PricesCloses: 3 daysLiquidity: $123.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $100.6KEvent: What price will Bitcoin hit October 26-November 1?

Indicative prices · 201 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢

YES

1.0¢

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets96Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:43 trades$14.3K trackedsource coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 250 min agoofficial metadata 203 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $3.6K net·3 wallets·$3.7K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$4.1K@ 75¢·0x06dc…4524

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$90

tracked

$14.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: YES · $3.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 201 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 250 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 203 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-11-02 05:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Outcome meaning

•This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Read full resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

0x06dc…45242 linked markets · $15.0K gross

0xf705…3ca72 linked markets · $8.8K gross

0xdfa6…779a2 linked markets · $269 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $3.9K → $3.9K · 88s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $0

6hNO · $90

24hYES · $3.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current99.9¢

VWAP 24h32.35¢▲ above by 67.5pp

VWAP 7d31.97¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

90¢

85¢

80¢

$31

75¢

70¢

$306

65¢

$126

60¢

55¢

$23

50¢

$1.1K

45¢

40¢

$297

35¢

$6.6K

30¢

$8.9K

25¢

$4.1K

20¢

$2.2K

15¢

$27

10¢

$2.3K

5¢

0¢

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

Loading trades…

🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.