Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?

● quote 22s ago

Politics→Culture→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $2.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $74.9KEvent: Elon Musk # tweets October 29 - October 31, 2026?

Indicative prices · 22s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

79.85¢

YES

20.15¢

1.3¢

Spread

anomaly91Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets2Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution62Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:23 trades$1.7K trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $6 net·4 wallets·$263 gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$3.0K@ 99¢·clggzz

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$60

+$1.3K

tracked

$1.7K

4 verified profitable wallets: NO · $6 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.3¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-10-31 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Mutually exclusive

Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 29 12:00 PM ET to October 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

upont3 linked markets · $39.5K gross

ElonSimp6 linked markets · $17.7K gross

0x9b257ead1a6240d4ab5c2ae02534 linked markets · $3.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $60

6hYES · $1.3K

24hYES · $1.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current79.85¢

VWAP 24h80.23¢▼ below by 0.4pp

VWAP 7d30.0¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

$1.4K

75¢

← now

$71

70¢

65¢

$12

60¢

$210

55¢

50¢

$15

45¢

40¢

35¢

30¢

25¢

20¢

15¢

10¢

5¢

0¢

$3.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.