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Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $35.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

56.6¢
Liquid
43.4¢
Aurora Gaming
0.8¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets21Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority47Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 17 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:396 trades$444.1K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 45s agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aurora Gaming · $20.0K net·17 wallets(1🐋)·$95.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora Gaming$81.4K@ 74¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Aurora Gaming pressure: $20.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$20.8K
6h
−$126.1K
tracked
$444.1K

17 verified profitable wallets: Aurora Gaming · $20.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.8¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 47

Since latest market sweep: -41.2pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Aurora Gaming or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-27 17:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid win the match against Aurora Gaming.

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against Liquid.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Liquid and Aurora Gaming in the PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid win the match against Aurora Gaming. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against Liquid. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 27, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
aaaa2983 linked markets · $81.3K gross
cruzNBA3 linked markets · $38.1K gross
0x1610…ae492 linked markets · $32.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Aurora Gaming@ 85.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h INVALIDATED -12.1pp
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Aurora Gaming@ 73.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -11.0pp1h CONFIRMED +11.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora Gaming@ 74.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -13.0pp1h CONFIRMED +10.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora Gaming@ 74.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -17.0pp
Latest book event: Liquid UP 4.6pp · near-book depth $2.1K → $2.9K · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Liquid; negative values favor Aurora Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAurora Gaming · $20.8K
6hAurora Gaming · $126.1K
24hAurora Gaming · $119.1K

Liquid price VWAP

Volume-weighted Liquid price. Aurora Gaming fills are converted to the complementary Liquid probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current56.6¢
VWAP 24h27.85¢▲ above by 28.7pp
VWAP 7d27.85¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Liquid price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$4.3K
60¢
$209
55¢
← now
$1.4K
50¢
$9.5K
45¢
$1.5K
40¢
$0
35¢
$85.5K
30¢
$25.2K
25¢
$203.7K
20¢
$17.2K
15¢
$85.8K
10¢
$4.3K
5¢
$5.1K
0¢
$448

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAurora Gaming$12.0K@ 60.7¢
sosedka0x334a…90b2
🐋—37 minutes ago
SELLAurora Gaming$44.8K@ 83.0¢
salgnklasf0xdad3…61cf
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLiquid$10.4K@ 15.7¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAurora Gaming$40.0K@ 74.0¢
salgnklasf0xdad3…61cf
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAurora Gaming$81.4K@ 74.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)
0.05¢$156.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
99.95¢$7.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
72.0¢$329priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Liquid (+3.5)
50.0¢$165priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
0.45¢$34priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Liquid (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-6.5) vs Liquid (+6.5)
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111Aurora Gaming$81.4K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill
salgnklasfAurora Gaming$40.0K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill
0x1610…ae49Aurora Gaming$27.5K
BUY VWAP 71.63¢·10 fills
juice-fruitLiquid$16.2K
BUY VWAP 17.64¢·7 fills
sosedkaAurora Gaming$12.0K
BUY VWAP 60.7¢·1 fill
cruzNBALiquid$11.6K
BUY VWAP 55.27¢·6 fills
yishiwuchengAurora Gaming$11.3K
BUY VWAP 81.81¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.