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Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $267.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $156.8KEvent: Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
Aurora Gaming
99.95¢
Liquid
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly93Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets46Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:68 trades$74.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aurora Gaming · $3.4K net·6 wallets·$7.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLiquid$11.7K@ 90¢·Orlandxx

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Aurora Gaming pressure: $2.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.0K
6h
−$3.6K
tracked
$74.0K

6 verified profitable wallets: Aurora Gaming · $3.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Aurora Gaming or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-27 17:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming wins 2 or more maps than Liquid in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Liquid".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Liquid and Aurora Gaming in the PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming wins 2 or more maps than Liquid in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Liquid". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 27, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
aaaa2983 linked markets · $106.8K gross
cruzNBA3 linked markets · $40.8K gross
0x1610…ae492 linked markets · $32.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Aurora Gaming DOWN 35.5pp · near-book depth $736 → $3 · 11s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora Gaming; negative values favor Liquid. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAurora Gaming · $2.0K
6hLiquid · $3.6K
24hAurora Gaming · $4.5K

Aurora Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora Gaming price. Liquid fills are converted to the complementary Aurora Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h30.7¢▼ below by 30.6pp
VWAP 7d30.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aurora Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$38
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$3
50¢
$0
45¢
$13.7K
40¢
$34.7K
35¢
$522
30¢
$0
25¢
$22
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$11.7K
0¢
← now
$13.4K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLiquid$11.7K@ 90.02¢
Orlandxx0x4569…e624
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
0.05¢$1.7Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
99.95¢$7.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
—$329priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Liquid (+3.5)
48.0¢$165priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
—$34priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Liquid (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-6.5) vs Liquid (+6.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

OrlandxxLiquid$11.7K
BUY VWAP 90.02¢·1 fill
relativesignificanceAurora Gaming$10.4K
BUY VWAP 44.37¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.