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Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $119.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $833.3KEvent: Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

51.5¢
Spirit
48.5¢
MOUZ
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets90Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:230 trades$387.6K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Spirit · $144.8K net·16 wallets(3🐋)·$160.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSpirit$37.2K@ 57¢·juice-fruit

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Spirit SETUP
What the tape says

Spirit pressure: $17.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$17.0K
6h
+$144.8K
tracked
$387.6K

16 verified profitable wallets: Spirit · $144.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 66

Since latest large flow: -5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Spirit or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-27 20:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against MOUZ.

•This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Spirit.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Spirit and MOUZ in the PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Spirit. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
aaaa2983 linked markets · $42.8K gross
CORGI82 linked markets · $36.6K gross
suleng662 linked markets · $31.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Spirit2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Spirit2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Spirit@ 57.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp1h CONFIRMED +31.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Spirit@ 55.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp1h CONFIRMED +30.0pp
Latest book event: MOUZ UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $2.0K → $833 · 13s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Spirit; negative values favor MOUZ. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSpirit · $17.0K
6hSpirit · $144.8K
24hSpirit · $140.7K

Spirit price VWAP

Volume-weighted Spirit price. MOUZ fills are converted to the complementary Spirit probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h58.89¢▼ below by 7.4pp
VWAP 7d58.89¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Spirit price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$4.4K
80¢
$33.5K
75¢
$10.9K
70¢
$4.2K
65¢
$4.5K
60¢
$12.9K
55¢
$242.6K
50¢
← now
$74.7K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLSpirit$11.4K@ 81.0¢
sosedka0x334a…90b2
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSpirit$37.2K@ 57.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSpirit$14.6K@ 56.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSpirit$17.7K@ 56.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSpirit$31.0K@ 55.0¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$13.3K@ 46.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$18.1K@ 45.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYSpirit$10.2K@ 56.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 12 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner
0.5¢$511.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)
0.5¢$20.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
99.5¢$15.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5)
0.5¢$656priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
0.5¢$528priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5)
34.0¢$478priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
51.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5
0.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

juice-fruitSpirit$74.2K
BUY VWAP 56.43¢·4 fills
CORGI8MOUZ$31.4K
BUY VWAP 45.42¢·2 fills
fantasy7788Spirit$31.0K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill
0x076d…8d4cSpirit$18.6K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·2 fills
0x1610…ae49Spirit$12.6K
BUY VWAP 56.19¢·2 fills
vtcchampion52Spirit$11.7K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·4 fills
1337zzz1337Spirit$10.7K
BUY VWAP 54.83¢·2 fills
RN1Spirit$10.3K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.