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Spread: Arizona (-6.5)

Sports→American FootballSettlement: TCULiquidity: $93.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $228.1KEvent: TCU vs. Arizona
0.0¢
Arizona payout
100.0¢
TCU payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:46 trades$52.1K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 588 min agoofficial metadata 573 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Arizona · $5.1K net·6 wallets(2🐋)·$45.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArizona$26.0K@ 52¢·SDTrading

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome TCU. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-07 03:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Arizona" if Arizona win the game by 7 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "TCU".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for November 6 at 10:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona" if Arizona win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "TCU". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 10h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 10h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xb4f9…c9a73 linked markets · $90.7K gross
mooseborzoi7 linked markets · $61.3K gross
primm13 linked markets · $50.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Arizona@ 53.0¢22h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -3.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Arizona@ 52.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Arizona DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $585 → $738 · 84s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arizona; negative values favor TCU. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArizona · $1.6K
6hTCU · $4.4K
24hArizona · $39.3K

Arizona price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arizona price. TCU fills are converted to the complementary Arizona probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h50.92¢▼ below by 50.9pp
VWAP 7d50.92¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Arizona price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$114
55¢
$10.9K
50¢
$53.8K
45¢
$17.5K
40¢
$955
35¢
$719
30¢
$15
25¢
$0
20¢
$8
15¢
$1.8K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$2

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTCU$12.7K@ 52.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYArizona$18.7K@ 52.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYArizona$26.0K@ 52.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SDTradingArizona$26.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Arizona$18.7K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563TCU$12.7K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.