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Spread: LSU (-5.5)

● quote 54s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $28.7KEvent: Alabama vs. LSU

Indicative prices · 54s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

51.5¢
LSU
48.5¢
Alabama
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection43Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets21Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:14 trades$12.0K trackedsource coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 60 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:LSU · $1.4K net·2 wallets·$4.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlabama$5.0K@ 49¢·primm

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Alabama pressure: $5.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.2K
6h
−$5.1K
tracked
$12.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: LSU · $1.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 60 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alabama or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-07 20:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "LSU" if LSU win the game by 6 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Alabama".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for November 7 at 3:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "LSU" if LSU win the game by 6 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Alabama". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
primm3 linked markets · $10.4K gross
mooseborzoi3 linked markets · $4.3K gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $4.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor LSU; negative values favor Alabama. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlabama · $5.2K
6hAlabama · $5.1K
24hAlabama · $4.0K

LSU price VWAP

Volume-weighted LSU price. Alabama fills are converted to the complementary LSU probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h51.68¢▼ below by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d51.68¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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LSU price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$12.0K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: LSU (-6.5)
47.5¢$136.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: LSU (-3.5)
55.5¢$11.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Alabama vs. LSU
32.5¢$9.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Alabama vs. LSU: O/U 52.5
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Alabama vs. LSU: O/U 54.5
46.0¢$357priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: LSU (-8.5)
40.5¢$66priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Alabama vs. LSU: O/U 46.5
66.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Alabama (-8.5)
16.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.