PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026?

● quote 1829 min ago
Politics→ElectionsCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $169.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $5.0K

Indicative prices · 1829 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
99.7¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 0%

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$0

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
99.7¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 0% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 0 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •BUY/SELL is known for 0% of tracked volume.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-04 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 14h ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $0
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$8

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
4.5¢$4.4Mpriority76Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
95.5¢$2.5Mpriority50Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
24.5¢$1.8Mpriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.3¢$1.6Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
31.5¢$1.6Mpriority44Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
74.5¢$1.5Mpriority71Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
75.5¢$932.0Kpriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
78.5¢$860.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.