Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

● quote 16s ago
PoliticsCloses: 3 monthsLiquidity: $115.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $157.2KEvent: Los Angeles Mayoral Election
41.5¢
YES
58.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100direction6wallets98execution93priority0data 75%💡 5 smart
24h sample:35 trades$62.9K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $27.9K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$28.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$26.1K@ 44¢·lava-lava

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $3.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.5K
6h
−$3.7K
tracked
$62.9K

5 verified profitable wallets: NO · $27.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Observed tape is 16 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-12-31 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
flawfence2 linked markets · $65.2K gross
lava-lava2 linked markets · $28.2K gross
Do-Not-Redeem2 linked markets · $7.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 54.0¢10h ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.0pp1h CONFIRMED +5.0pp6h STALLED +3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

1hNO · $3.5K
6hNO · $3.7K
24hNO · $61.9K

YES price VWAP

Current41.5¢
VWAP 24h50.3¢▼ below by 8.8pp
VWAP 7d53.1¢
Largest observed holders

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$12.1K
60¢
$18.4K
55¢
$36.1K
50¢
$13.8K
45¢
$6.7K
40¢
← now
$17.8K
35¢
$20
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLYES$11.8K@ 43.6¢
flawfence0x23d8…0288
🐋about 10 hours ago
BUYNO$26.1K@ 44.0¢
lava-lava0x629b…995a
🐋about 11 hours ago
BUYYES$12.1K@ 65.0¢
lomneivan0x1fee…ed5e
🐋14 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

lava-lavaNo$26.1K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.