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Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?

● quote just now
Politics→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $45.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $319.9KEvent: Mississippi Senate Election Winner

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

26.0¢
YES
74.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets75Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution76Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:43 trades$40.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 26s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $640 net·11 wallets·$10.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$11.4K@ 87¢·AngryRhino

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW YES SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: $4.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.7K
6h
+$20.0K
tracked
$40.2K

11 verified profitable wallets: NO · $640 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 68% · priority 59

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-04 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Mississippi U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
AngryRhino2 linked markets · $19.3K gross
supersmard2 linked markets · $17.1K gross
Rene222 linked markets · $12.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $1.0K → $1.7K · 32s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $4.7K
6hYES · $20.0K
24hYES · $10.8K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current26.0¢
VWAP 24h18.18¢▲ above by 7.8pp
VWAP 7d15.86¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$3.7K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
← now
$1.5K
20¢
$10.0K
15¢
$1.6K
10¢
$53.0K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$11.0K@ 89.0¢
Rene220x8c54…e1a5
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYNO$11.4K@ 87.0¢
AngryRhino0xdf70…5e92
🐋—6 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AngryRhinoNo$11.4K
BUY VWAP 87.0¢·1 fill
Rene22No$11.0K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.