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Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

Politics→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $148.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $566.1KEvent: Florida Senate Election Winner

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.35¢
YES
99.65¢
NO
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:120 trades$208.3K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 77 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $27.2K net·7 wallets·$39.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$61.2K@ 100¢·pelik

Decision read paused

Market status is CLOSED. No executable setup is shown until trading is open again.

CLOSED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
CLOSED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-04 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
pelik2 linked markets · $100.0K gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $66.8K gross
Contestable-Parfait2 linked markets · $51.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 91.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -7.0pp

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market closed · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $65.2K
24hNO · $85.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.35¢
VWAP 24h5.19¢▼ below by 4.8pp
VWAP 7d5.99¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$15.3K
10¢
$68.4K
5¢
$48.3K
0¢
← now
$116.1K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$12.1K@ 99.9¢
Seutervoinen0xfaf6…cc47
🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLNO$10.2K@ 99.9¢
Seutervoinen0xfaf6…cc47
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNO$61.2K@ 99.9¢
pelik0x6a88…b859
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

pelikNo$61.2K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
quavooNo$39.2K
BUY VWAP 89.63¢·19 fills
Contestable-ParfaitNo$26.4K
BUY VWAP 90.74¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.