PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

● quote just now
Politics→Closes: —Liquidity: $85.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $64.3KEvent: Ohio Senate Election Winner
43.0¢
YES
57.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly13Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution84Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:5 trades$33.2K tracked40% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 32 min agoofficial metadata 22s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $23.0K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$23.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$20.8K@ 55¢·AngryRhino

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$171
6h
−$33.2K
tracked
$33.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: NO · $23.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 32 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
Unavailable
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
AngryRhino2 linked markets · $42.8K gross
lomneivan2 linked markets · $20.9K gross
0x122c…fbed2 linked markets · $2.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 57.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $171
6hNO · $33.2K
24hNO · $33.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.0¢
VWAP 24h45.0¢▼ below by 2.0pp
VWAP 7d45.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$53.6K
40¢
← now
$4.6K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$20.8K@ 55.0¢
AngryRhino0xdf70…5e92
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYNO$11.0K@ 55.0¢
Railcool0x94c4…43ca
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYNO$13.5K@ 52.0¢0xbd00…4fc0🐋—10 days ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
56.5¢$71.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
100.0¢$7.9Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$1.7Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0.1¢$1.6Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0.1¢$1.3Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$1.3Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$948.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$620.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AngryRhinoNo$20.8K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill
RailcoolNo$11.0K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.