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Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

● quote 10 min ago
Politics→ElectionsCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $57.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $13.6KEvent: Alaska Governor Election Winner

Indicative prices · 10 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

89.3¢
YES
10.7¢
NO
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:21 trades$1.8K trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 213 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $5.3K net·11 wallets·$5.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$25.4K@ 79¢·The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$131
tracked
$1.8K

11 verified profitable wallets: YES · $5.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 10 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 213 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-04 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 82.0¢11d ago
15m STALLED -0.8pp1h STALLED -0.8pp6h STALLED +2.1pp24h CONFIRMED +5.9pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $131
24hYES · $1.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current89.3¢
VWAP 24h88.71¢▲ above by 0.6pp
VWAP 7d87.87¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$20.1K
80¢
$837
75¢
$41.6K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$25.4K@ 79.01¢
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e
🐋—11 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.