PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Erste Bank Open: Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Musetti

● quote 16s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $462.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $446.8KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Musetti

Indicative prices · 16s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢
Arthur Fery
0.05¢
Lorenzo Musetti
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets46Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:127 trades$183.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Lorenzo Musetti · $22.5K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$49.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLArthur Fery$22.5K@ 100¢·Luzzzer

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Lorenzo Musetti pressure: $22.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$22.7K
6h
−$22.9K
tracked
$183.0K

5 verified profitable wallets: Lorenzo Musetti · $22.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -46.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Lorenzo Musetti or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-05 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fery and Lorenzo Musetti in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fery' if Arthur Fery advances against Lorenzo Musetti. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Arthur Fery. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x0951…cb3c2 linked markets · $40 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Lorenzo Musetti2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Lorenzo Musetti@ 47.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +9.0pp
Latest book event: Arthur Fery DOWN 8.0pp · near-book depth $47.4K → $29.5K · 21s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Arthur Fery; negative values favor Lorenzo Musetti. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLorenzo Musetti · $22.7K
6hLorenzo Musetti · $22.9K
24hLorenzo Musetti · $31.6K

Arthur Fery price VWAP

Volume-weighted Arthur Fery price. Lorenzo Musetti fills are converted to the complementary Arthur Fery probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.95¢
VWAP 24h51.27¢▲ above by 48.7pp
VWAP 7d51.27¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Arthur Fery price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$22.7K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$20.2K
50¢
$49.0K
45¢
$42.7K
40¢
$230
35¢
$5.2K
30¢
$3.5K
25¢
$39.1K
20¢
$243
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLArthur Fery$22.5K@ 99.9¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—7 minutes ago
BUYArthur Fery$11.0K@ 48.75¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLorenzo Musetti$10.7K@ 72.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Lorenzo Musetti (-3.5) vs Arthur Fery (+3.5)
0.4¢$4.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fery vs. Musetti: Match O/U 23.5
50.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs
—$2.5Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev
—$1.7Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Guangzhou Open: Maria Timofeeva vs Xinran Sun
—$1.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs
—$1.1Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Swiss Indoors Basel: Valentin Vacherot vs Rafael Jodar
—$989.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner
—$659.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cLorenzo Musetti$24.0K
BUY VWAP 60.06¢·4 fills
UpTheBluesArthur Fery$16.8K
BUY VWAP 51.62¢·10 fills
0x076d…8d4cArthur Fery$12.0K
BUY VWAP 55.69¢·3 fills
LuzzzerArthur Fery$11.0K
BUY VWAP 48.75¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Lorenzo Musetti$10.6K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.