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Set 2 Winner: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $9.6KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
Cameron Norrie
99.95¢
Daniil Medvedev
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection94Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution69Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%
24h sample:3 trades$3.1K trackedsource coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 42 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDaniil Medvedev$3.0K@ 67¢·0xdbdd…a5de

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Daniil Medvedev pressure: $2.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.9K
6h
−$2.9K
tracked
$3.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 42 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Daniil Medvedev or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-05 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Cameron Norrie” if Cameron Norrie wins set 2. It will resolve to “Daniil Medvedev” if Daniil Medvedev wins set 2.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Daniil Medvedev in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Cameron Norrie” if Cameron Norrie wins set 2. It will resolve to “Daniil Medvedev” if Daniil Medvedev wins set 2. If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
neutralwave232 linked markets · $1.6K gross
0xe1f4…f5a02 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cameron Norrie; negative values favor Daniil Medvedev. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaniil Medvedev · $2.9K
6hDaniil Medvedev · $2.9K
24hDaniil Medvedev · $2.9K

Cameron Norrie price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cameron Norrie price. Daniil Medvedev fills are converted to the complementary Cameron Norrie probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h32.62¢▼ below by 32.6pp
VWAP 7d32.62¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Cameron Norrie price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$3.0K
25¢
$0
20¢
$91
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev
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Game Spread: Daniil Medvedev (-4.5) vs Cameron Norrie (+4.5)
10.5¢$1.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5
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Norrie vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5
67.5¢$55priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cameron Norrie vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5
99.95¢$21priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5
99.55¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Medvedev: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.05¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Medvedev: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
99.95¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.