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Erste Bank Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Carlos Alcaraz

Sports→TennisSettlement: Carlos AlcarazLiquidity: $299.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $898.9KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Carlos Alcaraz
0.0¢
Nikoloz Basilashvili payout
100.0¢
Carlos Alcaraz payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:175 trades$382.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 47 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Carlos Alcaraz · $61.5K net·10 wallets·$71.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLCarlos Alcaraz$68.7K@ 100¢·tennischamp

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Carlos Alcaraz. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-05 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Nikoloz Basilashvili and Carlos Alcaraz in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 34m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 34m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
above982 linked markets · $2.6K gross
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $141 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 91.1¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
MARKET SWEEPSELL Carlos Alcaraz@ 94.1¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 90.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: Nikoloz Basilashvili DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $410 → $1.2K · 3s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nikoloz Basilashvili; negative values favor Carlos Alcaraz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNikoloz Basilashvili · $46.2K
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $91.6K
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $98.8K

Nikoloz Basilashvili price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nikoloz Basilashvili price. Carlos Alcaraz fills are converted to the complementary Nikoloz Basilashvili probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h5.35¢▼ below by 5.3pp
VWAP 7d5.35¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nikoloz Basilashvili price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$6.5K
10¢
$49.4K
5¢
$170.8K
0¢
← now
$155.8K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLCarlos Alcaraz$68.7K@ 99.9¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLCarlos Alcaraz$11.5K@ 99.9¢
prabam0xad82…1623
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$51.3K@ 93.33¢
yupiiiiiiiii0x44a1…bd21
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLCarlos Alcaraz$17.7K@ 91.2¢
casper70x7efe…2e32
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$12.9K@ 96.9¢
prabam0xad82…1623
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$24.9K@ 90.0¢
casper70x7efe…2e32
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

yupiiiiiiiiiCarlos Alcaraz$51.3K
BUY VWAP 93.33¢·1 fill
casper7Carlos Alcaraz$29.7K
BUY VWAP 90.0¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesCarlos Alcaraz$20.2K
BUY VWAP 94.90¢·16 fills
Paul973973Carlos Alcaraz$19.4K
BUY VWAP 94.90¢·8 fills
0x09be…9c32Carlos Alcaraz$13.9K
BUY VWAP 95.70¢·5 fills
prabamCarlos Alcaraz$12.9K
BUY VWAP 96.9¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardCarlos Alcaraz$10.7K
BUY VWAP 93.44¢·6 fills
0F62Carlos Alcaraz$10.0K
BUY VWAP 90.78¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.