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Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

● quote 96 min ago
Politics→Closes: 5 monthsLiquidity: $80.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $164.3KEvent: Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
40.5¢
YES
59.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%
24h sample:3 trades$50.3K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 129 min agoofficial metadata 99 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$50.0K@ 55¢·0x69c5…1e01

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$50.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$50.0K
6h
+$50.0K
tracked
$50.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 96 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 129 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 99 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$50.0K
6h+$50.0K
24h+$50.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.5¢
VWAP 24h55.0¢▼ below by 14.5pp
VWAP 7d55.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$50.0K
50¢
$5
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$300
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$50.0K@ 55.0¢0x69c5…1e01🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Verified directional wallets · 7d
No smart wallet activity