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Erste Bank Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Daniil Medvedev

Sports→TennisSettlement: Daniil MedvedevLiquidity: $309.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $452.2KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Daniil Medvedev
0.0¢
Adrian Mannarino payout
100.0¢
Daniil Medvedev payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:135 trades$135.5K trackedsource coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 120 min agoofficial metadata 48 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Daniil Medvedev · $31.7K net·10 wallets·$81.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDaniil Medvedev$9.3K@ 90¢·redvinny

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Daniil Medvedev. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-06 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Adrian Mannarino and Daniil Medvedev in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Daniil Medvedev. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Adrian Mannarino. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 49m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 49m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x1e3b…e2322 linked markets · $142 gross
0x7be1…200e2 linked markets · $57 gross
neutralwave232 linked markets · $19 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Adrian Mannarino; negative values favor Daniil Medvedev. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAdrian Mannarino · $0
6hDaniil Medvedev · $30.3K
24hDaniil Medvedev · $31.0K

Adrian Mannarino price VWAP

Volume-weighted Adrian Mannarino price. Daniil Medvedev fills are converted to the complementary Adrian Mannarino probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h9.2¢▼ below by 9.2pp
VWAP 7d9.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Adrian Mannarino price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$5.6K
15¢
$7.8K
10¢
$58.8K
5¢
$34.8K
0¢
← now
$28.5K

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Daniil Medvedev (-4.5) vs Adrian Mannarino (+4.5)
—$2.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Adrian Mannarino vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$626priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mannarino vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5
—$569priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mannarino vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5
—$228priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Adrian Mannarino vs Daniil Medvedev
—$125priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mannarino vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5
—$12priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mannarino vs. Medvedev: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mannarino vs. Medvedev: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

dmoralezDaniil Medvedev$24.4K
BUY VWAP 88.34¢·8 fills
redvinnyDaniil Medvedev$12.4K
BUY VWAP 88.57¢·2 fills
FlaznorpDaniil Medvedev$11.1K
BUY VWAP 92.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.