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Sioux Falls: Liam Draxl vs Darwin Blanch

● quote 457 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $156.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $152.0KEvent: Sioux Falls: Liam Draxl vs Darwin Blanch

Indicative prices · 457 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Liam Draxl
0.3¢
Darwin Blanch
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:40 trades$84.8K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 56%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 475 min agoofficial metadata 453 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLLiam Draxl$23.7K@ 100¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$84.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: Liam Draxl · $15 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 457 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 475 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 453 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-06 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Liam Draxl and Darwin Blanch in the Sioux Falls, originally scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 7:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Liam Draxl' if Liam Draxl advances against Darwin Blanch. This market will resolve to 'Darwin Blanch' if Darwin Blanch advances against Liam Draxl. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Liam Draxl8h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Liam Draxl@ 77.0¢9h ago
15m CONFIRMED +20.3pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Liam Draxl UP 10.0pp · near-book depth $42.6K → $5.1K · 22s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Liam Draxl; negative values favor Darwin Blanch. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLiam Draxl · $0
6hLiam Draxl · $0
24hDarwin Blanch · $13.3K

Liam Draxl price VWAP

Volume-weighted Liam Draxl price. Darwin Blanch fills are converted to the complementary Liam Draxl probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h77.16¢▲ above by 22.7pp
VWAP 7d77.16¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Liam Draxl price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$44.9K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$114
75¢
$401
70¢
$1
65¢
$443
60¢
$3
55¢
$20.7K
50¢
$1.2K
45¢
$1.2K
40¢
$15.7K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLLiam Draxl$21.2K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 8 hours ago
SELLLiam Draxl$23.7K@ 99.9¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYLiam Draxl$12.5K@ 59.0¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 9 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Draxl vs. Blanch: Match O/U 22.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Draxl vs. Blanch: Match O/U 21.5
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kkookkooLiam Draxl$12.5K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.