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Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?

● quote 16s ago
Sports→SoccerCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $337.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $317.5KEvent: England vs. Croatia

Indicative prices · 16s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

15.5¢
YES
84.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:20 trades$86.0K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$34.1K@ 16¢·migrodrigues

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: $13.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$13.1K
6h
−$5.2K
tracked
$86.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: NO · $8.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 55

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-12 19:45 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/
Outcome meaning

•If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between England and Croatia, originally scheduled for Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve to "Yes". The following abandonment rules apply only when this market's outcome was not already definitively determined under its rules before abandonment. If the game is abandoned, this market will resolve according to the official ruling of the governing body or event organizers on the abandoned game. If a result is awarded by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that determines this market's outcome, this market will resolve based on the awarded result, regardless of the score as played. If no such result is awarded and the result as played at the time of abandonment is declared to stand by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the game as played. If the game is replayed or resumed from the point of abandonment and has an official result by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the completed result. In any other case, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor names, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences in a team's or player's name will not affect resolution, provided the intended team or player can be clearly and uniquely identified as a participant in the listed fixture or competition. If a listed name has no reasonable connection to any participant, or could reasonably refer to more than one participant such that the intended team or player cannot be determined, this market will resolve as it would if the listed fixture had been canceled entirely; a listed participant who cannot be identified does not count as inactive or absent. The primary resolution source for this market will be official match information from UEFA Nations League (https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/). If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
LightParadox2 linked markets · $28.1K gross
Venusian2 linked markets · $12.1K gross
Limousin2 linked markets · $7.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 85.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $13.1K
6hNO · $5.2K
24hNO · $5.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current15.5¢
VWAP 24h15.73¢▼ below by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d15.73¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
← now
$86.0K
10¢
$1
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$34.1K@ 16.0¢
migrodrigues0x9a93…2793
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNO$25.3K@ 84.0¢
LightParadox0x051a…1db9
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

migrodriguesYes$40.4K
BUY VWAP 15.84¢·2 fills
LightParadoxNo$26.9K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.