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Game Spread: Xinyu Wang (-6.5) vs Adithya Karunaratne (+6.5)

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $4.0KEvent: Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Xinyu Wang vs Adithya Karunaratne

Polymarket indicative prices · 4 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

50.0¢
Xinyu Wang
50.0¢
Adithya Karunaratne
—
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%
24h sample:1 trades$949 trackedsource coverage 23%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 28 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$949
6h
+$949
tracked
$949

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 28 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-09 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Xinyu Wang" if Xinyu Wang wins 6.5 or more total games than Adithya Karunaratne in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Adithya Karunaratne".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Xinyu Wang could no longer have finished 6.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Adithya Karunaratne".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Xinyu Wang" if Xinyu Wang wins 6.5 or more total games than Adithya Karunaratne in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Adithya Karunaratne". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Xinyu Wang could no longer have finished 6.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Adithya Karunaratne". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Xinyu Wang; negative values favor Adithya Karunaratne. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hXinyu Wang · $949
6hXinyu Wang · $949
24hXinyu Wang · $949

Xinyu Wang price VWAP

Volume-weighted Xinyu Wang price. Adithya Karunaratne fills are converted to the complementary Xinyu Wang probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.0¢
VWAP 24h47.0¢▲ above by 3.0pp
VWAP 7d47.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Xinyu Wang price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$0
45¢
$949
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Xinyu Wang vs Adithya Karunaratne
94.5¢$11.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Xinyu Wang (-1.5) vs Adithya Karunaratne (+1.5)
83.5¢$100priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Xinyu Wang vs Adithya Karunaratne
93.0¢$1priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Xinyu Wang vs. Adithya Karunaratne: Total Sets O/U 2.5
15.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Wang vs. Karunaratne: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Xinyu Wang vs Adithya Karunaratne
86.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Wang vs. Karunaratne: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Wang vs. Karunaratne: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.