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Will the fight be won by submission?

● quote 3 min ago
Sports→Combat SportsCloses: 26 minutesLiquidity: $83.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $52.0KEvent: UFC 334: Caio Borralho vs. Yousri Belgaroui (Middleweight, Main Card)

Polymarket indicative prices · 9 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
YES
99.95¢
NO
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution27Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:14 trades$35.0K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 67%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 40 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$21.0K@ 75¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $34.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$34.8K
6h
−$34.8K
tracked
$35.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: NO · $21.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 40 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-15 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Caio Borralho and Yousri Belgaroui at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

•If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Caio Borralho and Yousri Belgaroui at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
cavvvy2 linked markets · $57.8K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $27.2K gross
0x1bc3…dc6e2 linked markets · $14.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $34.8K
6hNO · $34.8K
24hNO · $34.8K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h23.2¢▼ below by 23.2pp
VWAP 7d23.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$22.3K
20¢
$12.6K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$21.0K@ 75.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—40 minutes ago
BUYNO$10.2K@ 80.0¢0x1bc3…dc6e🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?
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UFC 334: Josh Hokit vs. Ciryl Gane (Heavyweight, Main Card)
33.5¢$609.3Kpriority45Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
UFC 334: Amanda Nunes vs. Kayla Harrison (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card)
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563No$21.0K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·1 fill
0x1bc3…dc6eNo$13.7K
BUY VWAP 79.57¢·9 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.