UFC 334: Caio Borralho vs. Yousri Belgaroui (Middleweight, Main Card)

● quote 38s ago

Sports→Combat SportsCloses: 36 minutesLiquidity: $283.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $556.4KEvent: UFC 334: Caio Borralho vs. Yousri Belgaroui (Middleweight, Main Card)

Indicative prices · 38s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢

Caio Borralho

0.05¢

Yousri Belgaroui

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets56Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 17 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:203 trades$217.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Yousri Belgaroui · $10.8K net·17 wallets·$22.1K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCaio Borralho$49.8K@ 61¢·cavvvy

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE

What the tape says

Caio Borralho pressure: $9.7K net directional flow in 1h.

+$9.7K

−$5.7K

tracked

$217.7K

17 verified profitable wallets: Yousri Belgaroui · $10.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +36.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
•Executable BUY price moved 36.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Caio Borralho or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-11-15 04:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Caio Borralho" if Caio Borralho is officially declared the winner of the fight against Yousri Belgaroui at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Yousri Belgaroui" if Yousri Belgaroui is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Caio Borralho" if Caio Borralho is officially declared the winner of the fight against Yousri Belgaroui at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Yousri Belgaroui" if Yousri Belgaroui is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

cavvvy2 linked markets · $57.8K gross

0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $27.2K gross

0x1bc3…dc6e2 linked markets · $14.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Caio Borralho28m ago

Outcome checks pending

LARGE FLOWBUY Caio Borralho@ 64.0¢31m ago

15m CONFIRMED +35.1pp

Latest book event: Caio Borralho DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $9.0K → $3.8K · 12s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Caio Borralho; negative values favor Yousri Belgaroui. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hCaio Borralho · $9.7K

6hYousri Belgaroui · $5.7K

24hYousri Belgaroui · $7.8K

Caio Borralho price VWAP

Volume-weighted Caio Borralho price. Yousri Belgaroui fills are converted to the complementary Caio Borralho probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current99.95¢

VWAP 24h65.83¢▲ above by 34.1pp

VWAP 7d65.58¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Caio Borralho price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

$26.5K

90¢

$1.6K

85¢

$4.0K

80¢

$586

75¢

$45

70¢

$3.9K

65¢

$10.5K

60¢

$106.5K

55¢

$70.7K

50¢

$466

45¢

40¢

35¢

30¢

25¢

20¢

15¢

10¢

5¢

0¢

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

Loading trades…

🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

SELLCaio Borralho$20.0K@ 99.9¢

Hezhengyu00xc117…de2f

🐋—11 minutes ago

BUYCaio Borralho$49.8K@ 61.0¢

cavvvy0xc466…b5cf

🐋—33 minutes ago

BUYYousri Belgaroui$24.6K@ 40.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—37 minutes ago

BUYCaio Borralho$12.0K@ 60.0¢

Hezhengyu00xc117…de2f

🐋—41 minutes ago

BUYYousri Belgaroui$12.6K@ 42.0¢

Raisuu0xc4a6…4e4e

🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

cavvvyCaio Borralho$57.7K

BUY VWAP 60.86¢·2 fills

0x3dfb…abafYousri Belgaroui$24.6K

BUY VWAP 40.0¢·1 fill

RaisuuYousri Belgaroui$12.6K

BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill

Hezhengyu0Caio Borralho$12.0K

BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.