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UFC 334: Luis Gurule vs. Bilal Hasan (Flyweight, Main Card)

● quote 18 min ago
Sports→Combat SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $964.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $466.9KEvent: UFC 334: Luis Gurule vs. Bilal Hasan (Flyweight, Main Card)

Indicative prices · 18 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Luis Gurule
1.0¢
Bilal Hasan
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection30Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets7Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 17 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:270 trades$123.2K trackedsource coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 17 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Bilal Hasan · $2.4K net·17 wallets·$32.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLLuis Gurule$12.8K@ 87¢·brokemaxdegen

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Bilal Hasan pressure: $37.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$37.0K
6h
−$52.2K
tracked
$123.2K

17 verified profitable wallets: Bilal Hasan · $2.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 18 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Bilal Hasan or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-15 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Luis Gurule" if Luis Gurule is officially declared the winner of the fight against Bilal Hasan at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Bilal Hasan" if Bilal Hasan is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Luis Gurule" if Luis Gurule is officially declared the winner of the fight against Bilal Hasan at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Bilal Hasan" if Bilal Hasan is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
brokemaxdegen2 linked markets · $21.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Luis Gurule UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $73 → $436 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Luis Gurule; negative values favor Bilal Hasan. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBilal Hasan · $37.0K
6hBilal Hasan · $52.2K
24hBilal Hasan · $54.0K

Luis Gurule price VWAP

Volume-weighted Luis Gurule price. Bilal Hasan fills are converted to the complementary Luis Gurule probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h51.22¢▲ above by 48.7pp
VWAP 7d51.14¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Luis Gurule price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$8.6K
90¢
$4.7K
85¢
$30.5K
80¢
$2.4K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.4K
60¢
$3.6K
55¢
$9.1K
50¢
$3.8K
45¢
$3.4K
40¢
$113
35¢
$749
30¢
$9.1K
25¢
$2.1K
20¢
$2.7K
15¢
$7.1K
10¢
$34.1K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLLuis Gurule$12.8K@ 87.0¢
brokemaxdegen0xd6c9…396d
🐋—39 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

cavvvyBilal Hasan$17.2K
BUY VWAP 56.60¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.