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Spread: Pittsburgh (-3.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: 17 minutesLiquidity: $58.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $149.7KEvent: Florida State vs. Pittsburgh

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

42.0¢
Pittsburgh
58.0¢
Florida State
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection51Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets25Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$69.2K tracked17% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Pittsburgh · $23.8K net·2 wallets(2🐋)·$63.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPittsburgh$42.3K@ 48¢·SineNooneEI

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Pittsburgh pressure: $35.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$35.4K
6h
+$18.1K
tracked
$69.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: Pittsburgh · $23.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 90% · priority 58

Since latest large flow: +5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Pittsburgh or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-14 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh" if Pittsburgh win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Florida State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Florida State and Pittsburgh, originally scheduled for Friday, November 13, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh" if Pittsburgh win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Florida State". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Sunday, November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh2 linked markets · $32.5K gross
SDTrading3 linked markets · $10.9K gross
primm2 linked markets · $9.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Florida State@ 55.0¢30m ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Pittsburgh; negative values favor Florida State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPittsburgh · $35.4K
6hPittsburgh · $18.1K
24hPittsburgh · $18.1K

Pittsburgh price VWAP

Volume-weighted Pittsburgh price. Florida State fills are converted to the complementary Pittsburgh probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.0¢
VWAP 24h47.23¢▼ below by 5.2pp
VWAP 7d47.25¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Pittsburgh price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$70.8K
40¢
← now
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPittsburgh$42.3K@ 47.83¢
SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1
🐋—22 minutes ago
BUYFlorida State$17.3K@ 54.0¢
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh0x0d6a…aa98
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SineNooneEIPittsburgh$42.3K
BUY VWAP 47.83¢·1 fill
keeptheblueflagflyinghighFlorida State$19.8K
BUY VWAP 53.74¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.