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Spread: Lakers (-11.5)

● quote 17s ago
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $31.3KEvent: Lakers vs. Kings

Indicative prices · 17s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

53.5¢
Lakers
46.5¢
Kings
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:19 trades$10.1K trackedsource coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Lakers · $584 net·2 wallets·$586 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKings$2.9K@ 52¢·Sammybolung

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$1
6h
+$1
tracked
$10.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: Lakers · $584 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 21 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-05 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Lakers" if the Lakers win the game by 12 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kings". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Kings".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game between Lakers and Kings, originally scheduled for Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Lakers" if the Lakers win the game by 12 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Kings". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Kings". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Friday, November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20263 linked markets · $35.5K gross
HomeRunHazard3 linked markets · $14.0K gross
vibing1232 linked markets · $3.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lakers; negative values favor Kings. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLakers · $1
6hLakers · $1
24hKings · $623

Lakers price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lakers price. Kings fills are converted to the complementary Lakers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current53.5¢
VWAP 24h48.99¢▲ above by 4.5pp
VWAP 7d48.99¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lakers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$4.3K
45¢
$5.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Lakers (-12.5)
49.5¢$161.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 234.5
47.5¢$60.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lakers vs. Kings
83.5¢$31.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Lakers (-9.5)
60.5¢$11.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 237.5
—$4.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Lakers (-27.5)
—$4.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 232.5
—$1.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 236.5
—$1.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.