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Costa do Sauipe: Facundo Acosta vs Thiago Seyboth Wild

● quote 1062 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $105.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $318.1KEvent: Costa do Sauipe: Facundo Acosta vs Thiago Seyboth Wild

Indicative prices · 1062 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

3.8¢
Facundo Acosta
99.9¢
Thiago Seyboth Wild
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets61Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:87 trades$79.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 25%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1092 min agoofficial metadata 1061 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Facundo Acosta · $1.1K net·6 wallets·$2.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFacundo Acosta$16.0K@ 64¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$79.5K

6 verified profitable wallets: Facundo Acosta · $1.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 1062 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1092 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1061 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-14 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Facundo Acosta and Thiago Seyboth Wild in the Costa do Sauipe, originally scheduled for November 7, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Facundo Acosta' if Facundo Acosta advances against Thiago Seyboth Wild. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Seyboth Wild' if Thiago Seyboth Wild advances against Facundo Acosta. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
dentleightadman2 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Facundo Acosta@ 74.0¢19h ago
15m INVALIDATED -38.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
MARKET SWEEPBUY Facundo Acosta@ 74.0¢19h ago
15m INVALIDATED -39.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Facundo Acosta20h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Facundo Acosta@ 47.0¢20h ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp1h INVALIDATED -38.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Thiago Seyboth Wild UP 3.4pp · near-book depth $41.2K → $2.3K · 12s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Facundo Acosta; negative values favor Thiago Seyboth Wild. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFacundo Acosta · $0
6hFacundo Acosta · $0
24hFacundo Acosta · $57.2K

Facundo Acosta price VWAP

Volume-weighted Facundo Acosta price. Thiago Seyboth Wild fills are converted to the complementary Facundo Acosta probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.8¢
VWAP 24h51.22¢▼ below by 47.4pp
VWAP 7d51.18¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Facundo Acosta price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$2.6K
65¢
$1.7K
60¢
$22.6K
55¢
$4.4K
50¢
$13.8K
45¢
$8.4K
40¢
$18.5K
35¢
$3.9K
30¢
$1.5K
25¢
$0
20¢
$78
15¢
$49
10¢
$68
5¢
$1.6K
0¢
← now
$603

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFacundo Acosta$16.0K@ 63.81¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 19 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Acosta vs. Wild: Match O/U 22.5
—$3.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Facundo Acosta vs Thiago Seyboth Wild
—$300priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Thiago Seyboth Wild (-1.5) vs Facundo Acosta (+1.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Thiago Seyboth Wild (-1.5) vs Facundo Acosta (+1.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Facundo Acosta vs. Thiago Seyboth Wild: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Acosta vs. Wild: Match O/U 23.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Giants vs. Eagles
58.5¢$1.1Mpriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz
11.5¢$904.2Kpriority65Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstFacundo Acosta$33.3K
BUY VWAP 46.58¢·5 fills
kkookkooFacundo Acosta$16.0K
BUY VWAP 63.81¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.